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Ouch. From one perspective, Australia's long-running campaign to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to put on the largest global climate summit and green trade fair, which would have brought tens of thousands of people to the South Australian capital next fall.

This won't occur. Rather, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the resort city of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had believed hosting the climate carnival could help speed up Australia's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been questions that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials really wanted the bid to be approved. His statements sent mixed messages at best. It translated to stories in the Australian and international media saying the administration was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the message being relayed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the government have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

DFAT, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and at times completely against.

There is little sign the prime minister has considered international climate meetings a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to consider it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the best result possible.

The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", managing nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the countries actually turn up for – the talks on how to collectively combat the climate crisis.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could fall over before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what looked like an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on climate change.

Turkey is widely seen in the international community as having been determined on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is privately arranged to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey clearly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

But, uniquely, Turkey declined to withdraw. The term "bastardry" has been thrown around in recent days, and not only by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to stare down the petroleum exporters that offered the Turkish government with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a conference hindered from the top if his administration led the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to host an unprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A path through was needed. The UN system is imperfect and often disconcerting to watch, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the battle with global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who participate in UN conferences see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. While certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from academic institutions and veteran observers at environmental negotiations say it is crucial to their success.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a president directing proceedings who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an ambitious outcome. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the conference except for making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unanswered questions. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations is essential at climate conferences. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on NGO participation by the host government?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the most promising opportunity possible to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, the nation and the global community. It's worth a try.