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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would serve as guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is near accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the details of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to forces of Nato countries operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. One proposal centers on Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security units rather than the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a special economic area might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.