Moving from Grudging Respect to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A surprise raid on the capital under cover of darkness, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of global norms and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Russia once planned, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed competently,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was meant to unfold: swift, dramatic and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be engaged in combat for this long.”

These observations have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the US intervention appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a network of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of helping to shape a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for the Caracas government just in late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other important partners fall from power or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to express outrage. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”