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At first, Trump seemed to take a firm stance on the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering statements of "severe repercussions" in August in case Russia's president carried on obstructing ceasefire talks, the former president finally enacted considerable penalties on the Russian primary energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This decision seriously affected the Russian leader's capacity to support his military invasion in the region.

However, through his recently unveiled comprehensive peace proposal for Ukraine, that was created by American and Russian representatives without Ukrainian or EU participation, Trump has apparently reverted to his pro-Putin position.

Rewarding Aggression

This plan would essentially benefit the Russian leader for occupying a sovereign nation while putting Ukraine's democracy in danger. Although bold declarations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be confirmed", much of the proposal effectively undermine that very independence. Seen as a Moscow's wish would probably be a disaster for Ukraine.

Demonstrating his corporate past, Trump continues to consider the Ukrainian conflict as a mere border issue, like giving Putin a portion of Ukrainian territory will please the leader. But, Russia's invasion is not merely about occupying a charred region of industrial-devastated land in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about the nation's democracy – and Putin's apparent intention to eliminate it so it ceases to functions as an enticing model for the Russia's population of the responsible governance that Putin's growing dictatorship withholds them.

Border Surrenders

While maintaining in status the already divided oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's proposal would require the nation to abandon the whole this eastern territory. Beyond rewarding the Russian Federation with area that its forces have been unsuccessful to occupy in more than a lengthy period of warfare, this surrender would leave Ukraine's defensive positions dangerously compromised.

This region is the site of the nation's much-vaunted "defensive line", the fortified military defenses that represent a critical obstacle to Russian advances. The proposal would have Ukraine abandon these fortifications, giving Russian forces a clear route to Kyiv in case he eventually decide to renew the conflict.

Defense Restrictions

Then, in a move that would enable renewed conflict more feasible for Russia, Trump would force Ukraine to diminish the numbers of its armed forces from their existing 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a limit of 600,000. Notably, Trump's proposal places no equivalent limits on Russia's military.

In what appears as a concession to Russia's efforts to depict Ukraine's democratically elected government as Nazis, Trump's proposal states: "All radical belief system and practices must be rejected and banned." Seemingly to emphasize this point, it demands that "Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days" of a peace deal. At the same time, Trump sets no condition that Putin risk his regime by allowing elections in his own country.

Protection Guarantees

To be sure, the plan has the Russian Federation pledge not to "invade other states" and to "establish in regulation its position of non-violence towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". However considering that Putin has violated similar agreements in the history – including the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government pledged to honor Ukraine's sovereignty in return for relinquishing its historical atomic arms, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow promised to a ceasefire and a restoration of occupied territory in eastern Ukraine to Kyiv – for what reason should we believe this commitment now?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so determined on external security guarantees. While the initiative promises a "immediate coordinated military response" should the Russian Federation resume its invasion, and includes that "Ukraine will receive strong defense commitments", the particulars include vague to alarming. The plan would not only deny the nation alliance membership but also prevent member states from deploying troops on the nation's land, thereby blocking the peacekeeping contingent, likely commanded by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to deter Russia from restoring his weakened troops, re-equipping, and attacking again.

International Response

A separate supplementary accord reportedly would offer Ukraine with a Nato-style defense commitment, in which any future "significant, intentional, and sustained aggression" by the Russian Federation on the country "will be treated as an act of war endangering the tranquility of the allied countries." This implies a military response. Yet unlike a powerful Ukrainian military – Ukraine's most reliable deterrent against additional hostilities – the effectiveness of the side agreement would hinge on the commitment of alliance members, including Trump, to react with force to Russia's attacks, something they have {not