Daily Homicides in Mexico Decline Over a Third During Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Official Statistics

The typical count of per-day killings per month in Mexico has decreased by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by fresh official figures. However, security specialists have warned that homicide data could fail to point to better national safety.

Marked Reduction in Daily Figures

There was an mean of nearly 55 killings a day in November versus roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the leadership in September. This information was shared by the director of the nation's federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that have been recorded in these past months is remarkably notable,” the President remarked, explaining that last month the smallest figure of homicides were registered for any November in the last decade.

Historical Context and Government Plan

Violent cartel internal conflicts, alongside the administration's heavily military campaigns to take on the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s homicide rate soar in the past few years. The figure hit a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s official data agency.

That gave Mexico a murder figure over 4x greater than the United States. From that point, murders have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has credited her national security plan for an ostensibly steeper reduction in homicides this year.

At a media briefing in August, the head of state stated: “There is a plan, we have monitoring of the strategy, and there is detailed monitoring town by town in some cases. The strategy functions. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The main components of the President's security plan encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigation efforts.
• Increased collaboration between various authorities.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, security experts urged caution that using homicide numbers to draw a conclusion of improved security was problematic. This is particularly true in light of the increase in other criminal activities such as people going missing.

“It would be positive information if this were a decrease, but I think we must not just look at the murder data and think: ‘Oh well, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican organised crime. “I would be guardedly optimistic.”

According to the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall dropped by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the identical timeframe the previous year. However, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some states have increased by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is no longer reliable for assessing the context of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who do not have the capacity or the will to accurately recognize and classify corpses. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to mask violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using monthly averages of daily killings was also problematic because it might hide days when there were notably spiking levels of killings.

“Using the per-day average renders surges of violent crime unseen,” he said.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Success

Where the administration can point to the success of its security plan is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 people were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for high-impact offenses, per official figures. More than 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tons of drugs intercepted.

“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s very politically advantageous,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Frustration

However in spite of these efforts, Mexico continues to be grappling with extreme violence, with several regions in the grip of cartel-fueled conflict. In the previous month there was a prominent murder of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors murdered in the past year.

Weeks later, many thousands of protesters protested in Mexico City and throughout the nation to voice their outrage at corruption and narco-violence.

“The government frames [data] in a way to construct a narrative of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s extremely potent, socially it’s very problematic,” the analyst concluded.